Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.030640 0.034870 0.039505 0.044969 0.051241 0.058224 0.066599
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.023506 0.029114 0.035830 0.044493 0.055409 0.068756 0.086387
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.020285 0.026602 0.034636 0.045657 0.060466 0.079794 0.107120
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.017467 0.023977 0.032666 0.045194 0.062931 0.087347 0.123856
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.015976 0.022824 0.032358 0.046721 0.068021 0.098769 0.147114
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.013902 0.020549 0.030145 0.045156 0.068327 0.103183 0.160440
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.012420 0.018936 0.028659 0.044404 0.069617 0.109020 0.176431
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.010948 0.017164 0.026715 0.042673 0.069092 0.111835 0.187726
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.010427 0.016805 0.026900 0.044300 0.074088 0.123992 0.215997
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.009952 0.016462 0.027056 0.045863 0.079095 0.136647 0.246633
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.009521 0.016141 0.027201 0.047391 0.084162 0.149898 0.279934
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.008824 0.015295 0.026367 0.047099 0.085912 0.157340 0.303181
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.008160 0.014460 0.025499 0.046705 0.087517 0.164855 0.327911
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.007559 0.013687 0.024673 0.046305 0.089080 0.172490 0.353974
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.007243 0.013401 0.024700 0.047514 0.093878 0.186958 0.396099
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.006738 0.012711 0.023907 0.047031 0.095213 0.194551 0.424435
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.006530 0.012571 0.024145 0.048624 0.100977 0.211968 0.476918
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.005974 0.011700 0.022875 0.046992 0.099730 0.214233 0.494937
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.005562 0.011080 0.022050 0.046208 0.100218 0.220320 0.522733
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.005084 0.010287 0.020806 0.044402 0.098243 0.220631 0.536503
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.004982 0.010263 0.021150 0.046099 0.104391 0.240332 0.601451
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.004876 0.010222 0.021453 0.047729 0.110559 0.260795 0.671353
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.004771 0.010171 0.021729 0.049323 0.116813 0.282204 0.746952